Assuming for the sake of this conversation that this premise is correct, are you simply proposing that Nintendo stop making its own hardware and become a dedicated mobile developer? If so, I can't agree, for reasons that have been discussed countless times on this site. The alternative to this plan is throwing in the towel.
That is not what I’m proposing, Nintendo rely on software – hardware synergy in their development, going away from making their own hardware would remove that possibility and force them under the hardware premises of outside companies; that would dampen their creative incentives and knack for original software.
I am in no way suggesting they become a dedicated mobile developer, and I can’t quite figure out where you get that impression from my post.
What I’m saying is that any kind of traditional console release at this point when the market, be it matured or developing, is undergoing such changes and partitioning is a bad idea as the outcome might well end up being bad, especially for markets where the cheaper convenience segment (note that that includes browser and social games, this is not simply about phones and tablets here) is likely to be the better alternative for most (if the other traditional consoles aren’t doing much in these markets; it is unlikely that yet another will, even dirt cheap PS2’s and Wii’s have failed to make much of an impact in these regions so price is not the main problem, especially now).
I assume "convenience segment" means mobile, based on the earlier portion of your post. If so, what is your support for that statement? As for the statement that consoles are losing relevance, we've just come off a generation where the combined home console sales are 260 million and rising, which I am confident in saying is a record. Shall we at least wait a little before predicting an epic and unprecedented collapse?
My support for that statement is the abundance of data showing how this segment has intruded upon traditional gaming; especially dedicated handhelds have taken a massive hit. Developing markets follow the trends and movements of mature markets so we can safely assume that whatever is happening in the latter will affect the former. “Unprecedented collapse” is a very dramatic straw man effort on your behalf and I never suggested as much; what I am stating is that we will see a market contraction and all the data thus far supports this view and you can see it on the very front page of the very site we’re posting on. 7th generation sales are in no way an indication of where console gaming is headed and it is ludicrous to think that the PS4, One and Wii U will manage a combined installed base to match that of the PS3, 360 and Wii.
The basis here being that you firmly believe home consoles are doomed and that mobile is the future, I gather, in which case your only proposed solution would be for Nintendo to go third party. I, by contrast, don't for a second believe mobile is going to take over all of gaming any time soon, just like PCs didn't destroy the home console market in spite of repeated predictions of such in the 80's and 90's. I think this plan is somewhat wise, as offering the current generation consoles (which are already pricey for the developed world, as are smartphones) probably won't fly much in the developing world, but that capturing an emerging market early can make it easier to succeed in future generations (see: Nintendo in Europe for how it's harder to be a Johnny-Come-Lately).
Again you’re putting words in my mouth; I have never said that consoles are doomed and that mobile will take over all gaming; that is a ridiculous conclusion to draw from my post(s). Nor have I ever implied that Nintendo should go 3rd party, in fact; I’ve been rather vocal about them not doing just that, because of what I mentioned at the beginning of this post, among other things.
Emerging markets are copies of developed markets; so like I’ve been saying, they will blueprint what mature markets are doing, and since consoles on the whole are on a downward trend and mobile/social/browser gaming is on the upwards trend, this is the most likely to strike home as a business proposal in developing markets. It’s all quite logical; consoles won’t suddenly get a whole new beginning simply for becoming more readily available on regions where they have historically been irrelevant and developing markets mimic mature markets.
I am not saying that Nintendo should go 3rd party; I am not saying that mobile gaming will conquer the entire market. I’m saying that mobile gaming will conquer a certain segment of the market that previously had one foot in the console and handheld market (look at Wii Fit, Brain Age, Buzz and similar games, there is no room for these games for fringe customers on traditional, static home devices any longer due to changes in demographic sway) and that attempting to revitalize console concepts in developing markets is a poor idea and that they should rather focus on gaining some hold where they have lost it. They are desperately searching for unplowed fields to sow their seeds and that won’t get them anywhere unless they take their time to really read the market and its development.
Admittedly, there's a glaring achilles' heel here, namely that Nintendo already has great difficulty covering its consoles with enough development resources. It's for this reason I suspect this plan will go down in flames, not because of the old narrative that mobile will be everything soon.
This is only one more part of the problem; one I didn’t even touch in my opening post. Nintendo’s resources are already spread very thin as is. “Mobile will be everything soon” is the third absolute term you have somehow attributed to me and it is quite simply unrelated to my point. You’re making many assumptions on my stance on the industry and its future, none of which seem to have been gleaned from my posts.
It quite simply seems like Nintendo are hoping for another Wii by tapping into a potential and nearly untouched market when the reality is that this is the wrong means to do so. Not to mention fierce competition by PC gaming in China, it is enormous over there.
I think that a lot of people get upset with me sometimes because I’m suggesting, and have been for some time, that Nintendo are lost in the woods and are failing to get with the times and that they simply got too comfortable with the winning handheld formula and the enormous success of the Wii; causing them to lose all sense of direction when both ends are being beaten and/or marginalized. Scrambled eggs are not everyone’s choice.
Edit; here is one of my posts where I mention some things about the changes in the gaming industry and consumer electronics market and a more accurate representation of my views:
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6075356
