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I have been hoping for some time that Wii U would behave like GC, in reverse. That being, it would start bad and end well.

Releasing a new console in a year would hurt more Nintendo than do good: where is the trust from consumers who spent 2 years without a steady flow of games to make their purchase worthwhile?
If Nintendo decides to streamline production, they can afford to end the Wii U`s life cycle with several games, because each game they develop for one console will come out for the other platform. Think of how many games Nintendo produces within a year to see that supporting Wii U even in it`s last year won`t be a problem.

The fact that Nintendo isn`t selling Wii U at a loss is really good news.

The 3.6 million is also a conservative figure - as expected.
Also, having to produce new units to achieve that goal could be the right time to redesign the Wii U and even do a full make over next year.