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Mr Khan said:

I would say conservative, but not a deliberate lowball. 4.5 mil is more likely if they execute a proper price-cut strategy, 4 million if they only do a minor cut.

Pretty savage if they undersell the GameCube, though. After all the mindshare gains their franchises made in the last generation, you'd have to think enough of that stuck that they could beat the Cube at least.

The Wii-U not being able to outsell the gamecube has been likely for a while now. Back in december Nintendo lowered the forecast of the fiscal year to about 2.7 million i believe. Gamecube shipped double that in it's first full fiscal year. Aside from a descent launch Wii-U has always been trailing behind the Gamecube.

Only difference is that the Gamecube was already lowered in price to $149 by this time in it's lifecycle, and was lowered further to $99 later in the year in the U.S. So the Wii-U does have way more room for price cuts to boost sales a bit. However Wii-U is already pretty much dead when it comes to 3rd party, and Gamecube was more on par with the other consoles of the generation.

We will see how it goes but Gamecube seems out of reach.