I don't think the PS3 has much of a chance, really. It has some big games coming, but it's still trailing the 360 by almost 7m units. Let's be generous and say that the 360 will have averaged 5m more owners over the course of the year. If each of those buys just four games, that's 20m more units of software sold over and above what it would sell with the same install base as the PS3. The PS3 will have some big games, but will it have 20m extra units of software worth of big games? It's also worth noting that the 360 currently beats the PS3 in software rather handily.
And if it's between the Wii and 360, it seems pretty clear that the Wii is going to come out on top. The Wii is very competitive in software right now, and it's building even more of an install base advantage over the 360. It also has several enormous games releasing this year.







