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In my honest opinion, I think Microsoft won't make a cut just yet. They want to force people to buy the console at $499 so they'll rely on wowing the crowd at E3 with their flagship exclusives and 3rd party exclusives. They can't afford a price cut right now, not this early. Also, a Kinect-less SKU is unlikely. The UI was built around the Kinect and while it's not 100% perfect, it still works. Besides, they need to profit on it.

Would it make sense if they unbundle the Kinect 5 months after the release of the Xbox One?