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I don't think big N. is set to win, but has a good chance. Not a new Zelda, or Kid Icarus makes them win. In matter of news we all know it is coming sometime. A new "Wii" game ala Wii Fit nobody knows about right know will help (Not Wii Music). A new IP will help, but something that will help big N. the most is if they "announce" aka show more third party support. Last year was "realtivly" lame, with all those YouTube Videos. They filled the gab for not so much news.

I have the feeling this year will be different. This year it will be about games, games and again games. And if there are enough Blockbuster third party games, big N. will win, even if Sony announce a 100$ price drop ;)