| Dark_Feanor said: Only if the ratio continues throught out every hollydays season, where basicaly 60% of yearly sales are accounted. Last hollydays the ratio was 4 to 3... so, the chances are slim of a 2 to 1 ratio even if nothing changes. |
At the holiday launch neither console had established a user base/marketshare, so their demonstrated popularity was not a factor.
At this point with significant PS4 sales lead (or parity in US market), there is also the additional factor of "buying what your friends have"
which benefits the console with the larger install base (unless one wants to assume that PS4 buyers have no friends and influence nobody).
Current sales we are seeing, at 2:1 or near it, are happening in that context of a relevant install base to influence decisions.
I agree at the short-sightedness of thinking MS will throw big money at subsidies but Sony won't,
PS4 is more important for Sony than MS, and PS4's demonstrated popularity makes any subsidies more of a "sure thing" investment for them.
Sony Corporate have been selling off unproductive and extraneous assets, aiming to invest that in their core business, of which PS4 is a part of.
"Locking in" solid 2:1 market share with next holiday season sales is a "gimmee" for Sony, so I fully expect competitive pricing from them.
Eventually they can ride out the gen with less price/profit pressure after establishing a lead, when it is beyond the point of return for a shift in market.
Locking in that solid market share domination will also help them be more successful in any innovations like the VR headset, leveraging larger base.
Sony's current production capacity is probably underspecced at least for this stage of the generation (who knows how sustainable vs. frontloaded it will be)
and I fully expect them to bring online more capacity, particularly given their tarriff issues in Brasil, a new facility there makes lots of sense.
So they may very well bring even more capacity online by autumn in order to saturate channels even more this holiday,
preventing MS from gaining any share simply by Sony being unable to keep up with demand. Although that may still happen.
