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So Xbox One shipments are at 5.1m vs WiiU's 5.86m.

Nintendo have yet to report their Q4 figures but have forecast 390k which would bring them to 6.25m. I should note however that Nintendo rarely hit their home console forecasts (and have missed for the past 4/5 years). So under 390k should definitely not be ruled out.

Regardless, the gap is around the 1 million mark.

Can MS possibly outship WiiU next Q with MK coming?

The same Q last year WiiU shipped 160k.