"The Console Market is Shrinking" is a BS Statement

[Zod95]

Shadow1980 said:

Zod95 said:

I'm not saying anything. The numbers speak for themselves. Sales have been lowering in the last years.

I know where you're coming from. Sales are always decreasing at the end of generations, so that would not prove anything. However, if you look at how 6th gen consoles (essentially PS2) were selling in 2005, 2006 and 2007 and compare it to what PS3, X360 and Wii have been selling in 2012, 2013 and 2014, you will realize the latter aren't as good. Similarly, compare X360+Wii+PS3 sales in 2005, 2006 and 2007 with WiiU+PS4+XOne sales in 2012, 2013 and 2014. The conclusion will be the same.

The console market is not a novelty anymore and people are spending their money like crazy on smartphones, mobile apps and other digital content. The shiny future of AAA dedicated hardware + software (aka videogame consoles) has come to an end. From now on, there's only the old school to support this industry.

I've already dealt with this issue already earlier in the thread. See this post and this post. Needless to say, there's nothing to indicate any alarm or any deviation from the normal cycle. The console market is still very healthy, at least in North America and Europe.

Very good posts, specially the first one. You've made a deep, comprehensive and intelligent analysis about the market size. I would just add the failure rates to the analysis, once that ends up being an important factor to go from sales to households. Anyway, good job.

However, even with your analysis we can conclude that this 8th generation won't sell as good as the previous one. Therefore, I would say that the market is shrinking. Is it because of the WiiU's failure? Is it because of the similarity between PS4 and XOne? We really don't know for sure, and honestly it doesn't matter that much. What matters (to this discussion) is that the market is shrinking.

I had pointed out the fact that smartphones and tablets are taking a lot of people out of the console market and that is relevant already because, even if the effects are not yet visible (I will suppose there is an equal amount of people entering the market, but it could be another reason too), they will be extremely drastic in the long-term in case this trend continues.

So we may be experiencing a first (soft) decline due to, let's assume, WiiU's failure to appeal to the casual market and then we will face a hard decline due to the alternative forms of media entertainment that are emerging. Unfortunately, that's my prediction for the future.