I'm thinking TLOU 3 mil, Halo 2 2mil. TLOU has very good timing. It's recent, has had just enough time for people to spread news of its by word of mouth, so more people will be interested, since it's a new franchise that's had such praise. It's also going to be one of the best things on the system. Halo 2 is pretty old news now, there are better options on the system, and the franchise has improved a lot and moved on since then so it's less interesting. Add in the install bases, and the troubles in Europe and Japan, and TLOU has a distinct advantage even without Halo's brand recognition.
To those saying a multiplayer focus will help Halo 2, I say it will hurt it, because people will have more likely gotten their fill of Halo at a friend's house than with TLOU. Sure, you can borrow the game, but with a single player game you'd much rather own it, whereas with a multiplayer game, you don't even need to borrow it to get full enjoyment, you can just play with your friend.
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