"The Console Market is Shrinking" is a BS Statement

[Shaunaka]

Augen said:

Looking at the three consoles, do you see a path to same amount of growth? That would put us at 310 million consoles.  Even if PS4 sells like gangbusters for years getting to PS2 levels is a massive challenge and would leave 160 million consoles for Nintendo and Microsoft to fill in.

Even thinking flat growth (260-270 million) is very optimistic right now for this generation.  We could see PS4 sell 110 million, X1 sell 70 million, Wii U sell 40 million and still be 40 million short of that range.

I think it is completely reasonable to predict roughly 200-220 million sales depending on this generations life span (5-8 years).  That said, I would love to be wrong and see us breakthrough 300 million barrier.

It can't keep on growing like that forever, and 310M is a little high in anyone's books I think. This gen might end up similar to the last one. The specific point of this thread (and lots of people are getting upset and don't seem to realize this) is that there are doomsday-sayers out there who talk about the shrinking console market all the time and it's bullshit. Simple as that. I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't grow much.