| Shaunaka said: This comes up again and again. It's mentioned in forums as if it's a fact (happened today!), and it's pissing me off a lot to be honest. Let's deal with the facts shall we: Generation 3: NES + Master System + Atari = 61.91 + 11.8 + 3.77 = 77.48 Million Generation 4: SNES + Megadrive + TurboGrafx + CDi = 49.1 + 40 + 10 + 0.57 = 99.67 Million Generation 5 PS + N64 + Saturn + 3DO + Jaguar = 102 + 32.93 + 9.4 + 2 + 0.25 = 146.58 Million Generation 6 PS2 + Xbox + Gamecube + Dreamcast = 153.6 + 24 + 22 + 10.6 = 209.2 Million Generation 7 Wii + PS3 + 360 = 100.6 + 81.6 + 80.6 = 262.8 Million (and counting!!!)
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Looking at the three consoles, do you see a path to same amount of growth? That would put us at 310 million consoles. Even if PS4 sells like gangbusters for years getting to PS2 levels is a massive challenge and would leave 160 million consoles for Nintendo and Microsoft to fill in.
Even thinking flat growth (260-270 million) is very optimistic right now for this generation. We could see PS4 sell 110 million, X1 sell 70 million, Wii U sell 40 million and still be 40 million short of that range.
I think it is completely reasonable to predict roughly 200-220 million sales depending on this generations life span (5-8 years). That said, I would love to be wrong and see us breakthrough 300 million barrier.
