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Yakuzaice said:

Last year is probably still overtracked as well.  Media Create has Japan at 14.66m at the end of the year.  Nintendo shipped 15.76m to Japan.  That means a 1.1m shipped/sold gap in just one country.  However VGC shows a worldwide gap of 950k.  That would suggest that outside of Japan the 3DS had sold every unit they shipped and more.

That's very interesting, thanks!