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I don't think it is about the amount sold for MS as much as it is about profit made in the long term. In sure the strategy wouldn't have been a short term one as it wouldn't make sense.

If they took on heavy losses for paying for exclusivity, cost of giving the game away for free, cost of paying for the marketing, cost of hit they took on for dropping the console price, the question becomes what numbers does Microsoft need to ship and at what cost to make this venture successful