I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that XO might stay in last place. Xbox had Halo and Halo 2 and that didn't manage to propel it past a cheaper system with more games. XO already had THE big hype exclusive shooter grace the console for the year and it had a minimal impact on it's trajectory. There isn't another until next fall or winter. I think there is a very real chance for an XO stall out in the same way we've seen with most other 8th gen consoles.
The AAA industry model is really working against it. With less and less titles costing more and more developers wont support the XO exclusively they way they have in the past with the 360. So it's less and less likely it can differentiate itself from the PS4 library. 3rd parties are probably all on board PS4 after Titanfall. MS has never had as much 1st party presence as Sony so I don't see them being able to make up the difference internally.
I can't see them cutting the price. The moment they start subsidizing it shareholders are gonna complain and we don't know if the new head is going to be nearly so generous with that warchest. I would like to believe it will do substantially better but the variables just don't seem to add up in it's favor.
Depending on how far apart Smash and MK are they wont be enough to maintain momentum for it to pass Vita. If only because I don't see any titles outside of them that will really help in that effort. If only because it's so cheap to develop for and seems to have more active software purchasers in Japan than PS3 or PS4 Vita will continue getting more Japanese support. If Sony can ever get to 15,000 yen $149 We might even see the EU respond better to it as well.
