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Vita may very well end up ahead of Wii U in the long run, but I'll go ahead and say that Mario Kart/Smash Bros pushes Wii U ahead of Vita by the end of the year.

As for XBO passing Wii U...I'll go middle of next year or so, barring a massive price cut/some unexpected big name title releasing for the system this year we haven't heard about yet.