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This possibly is the most bare bones kind of prediction I've seen in awhile. Even though you pointed out it's shortcomings, it's still kind of ridiculous the lack of further research you put into the numbers.

However, taking into consideration what you have, I can't really say. Your own predictions for the two are so overlapping that it would be crazy to call a winner at this point in time. I've got to say, I have even less hope in the Wii U, though. And I didn't even have high hopes for it to begin with.