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Soundwave said:

The 3DS was actually supposed to come out for holiday 2010, they just didn't have games finished for it (surprise, surprise).

And do you think rushing hardware through the door is going to help with that ? You need more than a year to prepare software for a hardware launch, so if we're talking about a hypothetical 2015 release, that means working on said software now. And I don't see that happening, as Nintendo's internal teams are currently busy on WiiU and 3DS software for 2014-2015 at least, not to mention the "Quality of Life" platform (which could end up being the money-maker you claim they need).

Soundwave said:

I don't think they have a choice really. Honestly the Vita will probably soon start outselling the 3DS on a weekly basis in Japan too, so there's that as well. The system is being hit hard by YoY declines there.

Despite all this talk of 3DS YoY declines in Japan, Vita barely manages to tie or outsell it in a good week, being regularly outsold by it. There's no signs whatsoever of Vita outselling 3DS in Japan this year, and it's too soon to talk about next year. Just like 3DS might be getting to its saturation point, so will Vita eventually, and we have yet to see any "game-changers" here software-wise for it to expand its potential.

Besides, the difference between install bases will still be there anyway, not to mention in the West. The support is not going to magically disappear any time soon...