Seece said:
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lkyjoe said:
Seece said:
Ah so the recent trends mean nothing to you, ok. You never would have predicted 3DS would be down 50% YoY on average weekly, and you despite this happening you don't entertain the idea it could happen again? What did pokemon ect do for 3DS exactly? The console has been down YOY for ages now. There is nothing to suggest 3DS doesn't fall to 20k weekly in Japan next year (which isn't even down 50%) and the Vita sustains around the level. Heck it already is without software.
Don't try and make out it's an outlandish claim, I've already proven you wrong once. Also don't forget that PSP took off late in Japan but when it did, it was a powerhouse.
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Yeah, Pokemon did nothing for the 3DS, it only sold over 200k in Japan that week (which is 10x your predicted weekly baseline there). Monster Hunter does nothing either, MH4 took the 3DS to 275k and MHTriG took it to 350k.
And the PSP took off because it had all the mainline Monster Hunter games. Which are now 3DS exclusive. I mean... come on.
Recent trends are recent trends, they can be changed by one truly big game, which Vita never gets.
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Yeah lets use pokemons launch week as a basis for the weekly average rather than look at what it's done for the last 6 weeks which is around 30k. Are you seriously suggesting that?
Monster hunter is exclusive for now.
That's funny, you seem to want to ignore that for the 3DS. Go look at this weeks numbers, THAT is the recent trend and that only has to fall 30% to hit 20k weekly like I suggested.
Also, unless you've seen Nintendos contract with Capcom, you don't know if MH will ever come to vita.
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You asked what a Pokemon game could do, so I pointed out it could take the 3DS to 10x your projected baseline. That is not the same as saying that 200k is my projected baseline...
Of course MH is exclusive right now, maybe it will stay that way, maybe it won't, but I'd say assuming the status quo is a more logical choice, especially when Capcom's long term goal is to grow the franchise in the west, and Sony have been unwilling to help out with that where Nintendo have.
The point is it doesn't matter if the 3DS drops to whatever during slow weeks when it can pull off 2-3 months worth of Vita sales at their absolute best in just one week with just one game release, and that is not something the Vita is capable of counteracting.
Anyway, if you're so adamant that this is going to happen, I'll see you every so often to remind you of this. Of course, then you'll just say you were just playing devils advocate and it wasn't really a prediction....
