Well, they're already moving forwards with the new quality of life initiative launching in 2015. That's a way to diversify their business and make their revenue less susceptible to the ebbs and flows of console generations, particularly a tough generation like they're enduring right now.
I'd assume they won't want to muddy the waters by launching a new videogame system and the entirely new venture next year. Given they're still (manpower wise) a relatively small company, I'm also not sure they'd have the resources to push out a new system that has sufficient software support (a huge issue for both Wii U and 3DS, something Nintendo desperately need to avoid in future) AND launch an entirely new business venture.
I think you are correct, though, that Nintendo won't attempt to ride out 3DS for too much longer. I can see an early (March to June) 2016 launch for a new handheld, with a new home console following six months later. Unless their quality of life initiative is a big money spinner from day one, in which case they may feel under less pressure--with a more stable revenue stream and less twitchy shareholders--to deliver their new vision for a network orientated platform accessed through their new proprietary hardware. It's correct to envision, at this point, a rather ugly looking 2015 for Nintendo in terms of videogames shifted, but if that's offset by new revenue and profit from their health device(s), then I don't think they'll feel too pressured to act rashly.
If that fails, then who knows? Overall, though, I think due to limited manpower, the necessity to get their next hardware offerings (which mark a departure from Nintendo's traditional approach to hardware) very right from day one, and their desire to expand their business offerings, 2016 is the year for new Nintendo hardware. Even if, as seems likely, next year is a tough year for Nintendo shipment wise, they have the chance to see how their quality of life idea launches before pushing more gaming hardware out.







