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Mummelmann on 12 March 2014
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JoeTheBro said:
Mummelmann said:
Okey, these PS4 drops can't possibly be just due to stock issues, it's unlikely they have such a low production capacity and we know that there wasn't a huge amount of stock allocated to Japan for the second and third week.
I wonder if certain users are still imagining 20 million by year end and 250k average weekly sales through Q2 and Q3. Even if there are widespread stock issues, it's incredibly unrealistic to imagine doubling last week's numbers and staying there through the mid-year lull.

...

Yes I'm still confident it can do 20 mil by the end of the year.


How will it happen though, what will drive the sales? The summer will be tough, I can't imagine that it will be able to keep up with the Wii's first year in Q2 and Q3, it's already gaining fast and that only leaves one possibility; an insane Q4, to the amount of up to 10 million, that's a 770k weekly average through all of Q4. I'm basing this on roughly 10 million lifetime by the end of August, even if it somehow managed 12 million by the end of August, that still leaves 8 million for Q4, 900k more than the Wii.

I just don't understand the reasoning behind the 20 million figure at all, especially with possibility of a comeback by the One is North America and Japan being more or less irrelevant for home consoles this gen. I think people have somehow got it in their head that; "Well, one console has to sell amazingly, especially if two of the others aren't doing fantastic numbers." But I think that this is a highly simplified and assumptive way of thinking (look at the 3DS, it's not set to break any records despite pathetic competition on the dedicated handheld market), by all appearances; the entire console market is currently trending rather heavily downwards and people are going way overboard with the PS4 sales predictions.