Every gen is new and different. There is always a chance, however small. Historical data from previous generations has proven to be very unreliable at predicting winners. Who knows, microsoft could introduce some kind of game changer like wii fit or kinect for example.
Plus, your reference fails to recognize microsofts own failures last gen. They did some major damage to their brand early on with the rrod. Microsoft didnt have a perfect start last time, and they certainly didnt have a perfect start this time.







