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crissindahouse on 09 March 2014
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Figgycal said:

115 mil wouldn't have been a crazy prediction, but Ethomaz could not have accounted for 3 things.

1. People are adopting next gen at a faster rate than most expected (not me of course, because my prediction skills are godlike).

2. Sony haven't had a meaningful price cut on the PS3 since 2012.

3. PlayStation Now would be launching and effectively let people play PS3 games on non PlayStation 3 hardware.

There's no way Ethomaz could have predicted any of these in 2012.

sry but that's simply wrong. just as example, If you want to tell me that nobody could know that Sony would let people get Playstation 3 games with something like Playstation Now in 2014 (or 2015 in Europe) even when they bought Gaikai for ~400m in I think mid 2012 I wonder what people thought why Sony bought Gaikai. I pretty much expected the integration maybe even earlier and not 2 or in Europe almost 3 years later.

And why was it so hard to predict huge sales for PS4 in the beginning? Just look at how PS3 sold in Europe at launch for 599 bucks and it was not hard to predict that Sony can sell pretty much everything they produce for 399 Euro which is even less if you take inflation in account. Not to forget that the PS3 launch in as example USA could have been better as well without their huge production problems.

I expected to see lower sale after a while but very high sales in the the first months were pretty much a given. I just hope I wasn't right with not so impressive sales after a while.

You can obviously never know what exactly happens in the next years but that's why it is a prediction and you can't simply say "if I would have known everything when I made my predicition, my prediction would have been better" because then it would be not a really hard predicition if you would know the future already.