Seece said:
Japan will drop more (unless they intervene) I can't quite believe how much it has dropped already. |
I don't think so. If it was a true Xb one exclusive (i.e. a very strong incentive for 360 owners to upgrade), and there was a worldwide US$50 equivalent price cut I might agree. Or if this had been halo 5. But TF will do very litte for HW sales after about 3-4 weeks on the market, or at least until the free giveaway bundle runs out. You seem to be buying in to the TF uberhype, which doesn't seem like you.
If we say 55K is the current sustained level of Xb1 sales, then +10% for all remaining markets and +10% for long term TF effect (and most of that +10% will be USA) means 66K is the new baseline. 80K+ requires a global price cut and / or flagship true exclusive i.e. Halo 5. What we will have a bit of an indicator of is the effect of the GBP30 price cut in the UK. If that gives Xb one a long term 3-4K lift then post TF baseline could be 70K once all other markets are in (what's the timeline on that btw for the next 37 markets?). To get to 80K from just TF and selling in most of the minor markets requires a 45% lift in baseline sales, how do you figure TF can achieve a 25-30% lift in baseline? I can see 20% for North America, sure, and perhaps UK too (esp with the official price cut there). But in the rest of the markets, where Xb one is virtually irrelevant right now? Short term boost absolutely, long term effect virtually nil.
“The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.” - Bertrand Russell
"When the power of love overcomes the love of power, the world will know peace."
Jimi Hendrix







