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NewGuy on 06 March 2014
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I think a good question is, will FFXV sell > 1 million in Japan alone? 2 million?

And will KH3 sell > 1 million in Japan alone?

Let's dismiss the XBone in Japan (since it will most likely be irrelevant there) and just consider the PS4 for this exercise. I'm using VGC data btw.

Historical data:

Kingdom Hearts

Mainline games:
KH - 940K
KH2 - 1.12M

Spin offs
KH BBS - 750K
KH 358/2 - 530K
KH CoM - 350K
KH 3D - 340K
KH 1.5HD - 240K
KH 2.5HD - TBD

Final Fantasy
Mainline games:
FFVII - 3.28M
FFVIII - 3.63M
FFIX - 2.78M
FFX - 2.73M
FFXI (MMO) - 150K
FFXII - 2.33M
FFXIII - 1.87M
FFXIV (MMO) - 260K

spin offs
FFX/X2 (Vita) - 250K
FFX/X2 (PS3) - 280K
FFX2 - 2.11M
FFXIII-2 - 890K
Lightning Returns - 420K
Crisis Core FFVII - 800K
FF Type 0 - 810K
Dissidia - 910K


There are only 3 main line FF games that did not sell over 2 million in Japan since PS1. 2 of them are MMOs and one was released on the struggling PS3 and is considered by many to be the worst mainline FF game ever. I'm very curious to see how FFXIV will sell on PS4 in April, if it gets decent numbers it could bode well for FFXV doing over 2 million there. SE knows they messed up with FFXIII and damaged the series. They want to move away from that and get FF back to its glory days. If they play their cards right, they could achieve it. FFX/X2 HD port (not a remake) selling over 500K is encouraging. If they don't fumble the series and if the PS4 can start selling well in JP, I can see 2+ million for FFXV there.

KH is going to be more difficult, but doable. It's been almost a decade since the last mainline KH, and they can now add Marvel and SW characters which would even get my interest. The numbers for the spin off games are healthy and encouraging for a possible million seller with KH3. I do think it's a mistake to have KH2.5HD on PS3 only.

Overall I think it'll depend on timing and how the PS4 does until the games release. I think both games should be released no later than Dec 2015 to have a shot at reaching those milestones.