Very well done indeed.
I do however, think your productions rates ramp up slightly too slowly. The production was reported to be just shy of 1.5m in late May '07, and I remember there was talk about the 1.8m as early as July but later it came out that there was a parts shortage that pushed it back into Aug. I'm having a hard time locating the article for the 1.8m in August part but I'm fairly sure that Reggie has said they hit 1.8m production during the summer which would be Aug at the latest. I also remember hearing a lot about 1.8m well before September but that doesn't mean a lot by itself. I do think the 1.5m production needs to be pushed back into Jun at least it actually puts it in line with the rest of the production increases right before a new quarter.
I do have to admit I'm confused why you said you don't think there was significant stockpiling in the other thread. By your unaltered numbers there were 3m Wii's stockpiled going into Nov '07 and I would definitely call that significant. Some of that is normal production but about 1.2m of it isn't. Similarly at the end of Feb there is about 2.8m stockpiled by your numbers with 1.8m of that being normal production and around 1m being stockpile. I guess it depends on the definition of significant but for me 1m qualifies. And if you were to move your production timetable back a month for 1.5 and/or 1.8 it would add another 300-600k to those stockpiled numbers.
In any case, I want to be clear that I'm not trying to diminish the work you've done as I think you've done a good job with it. I just don't fully agree with your conclusion for the reasons mentioned above. With that said I agree with about 95% of it.
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