Why a 70% dominance of PS4 (PS2 like dominance) will be impossible

[DonFerrari]

Some people negating the possibilitie of PS4 dominance use arguments imagining that Sony won't release in more countries, won't ever drop the price (even using sony is bankrupt as excuse, and forgeting sony cuted the price while losing 200 per console in the launch and already in the red) and won't have nice exclusives. Of course WiiU and Xbone have a chance of enhancing their sales more than the PS4 because an increase from 35 or 50k is a lot easier than from 130k and a console to have 70% of marketshare must have almost 2.5 to 1 against all the competition combined, and when you have two of them things become difficult (and even with PSVita selling really low numbers and being 3DS only competitor it still take a lot of marketshare).

Every jump in % of marketshare becomes more difficult. 33% is 1:2 50% is 1:1 (an increase of 17 percentual poinst - 51% increase - needed double the sales relative to competition) 66% is 2:1 (16 pp -32% increase - for another double) then shit happens 80% is 4:1 (14pp - 21% increase - for another double). In a joke it would be the diminishing returns of dominance, 90% is 9:1 and 99% is 99:1.

Considering PS4 1M per month production giving 250k per week as maximum attainable average during the first year (and something proportional for the rest of the years) let's put some numbers to show it.

For 33% marketshare weekly sale is 250k for PS4 and 500k for WiiU/Xbone - total 750k for all consoles.

For 50% share sale is 250k to 250k - total 500k (33% drop in total).

For 66% share sale is 250k to 125k - total 375k (25% drop)

For 80% share sale is 250k to 62,5k - total 312,5k (16,6% drop) - and around 30-33k for each competitor, what isn't very much probable of course (nor very health).

Talking about Yearly sales for 70% dominance (will count from this january launch for both consoles to december end). PS4 1st Year 13M (250k weekly) - agaisnt 5,57M for the competition what would be abysmal considering that it would be an average 53,56k for each competiting console (and we know both would sell at least 1M each around holidays, making sales in the other months to low like 42k each). If we talk LTD for 1st January 2015 that people expect 20M PS4 (16M during 2014) for 70% competition would be LTD 8,57M considering current sales of WiiU/Xbone already 5,7+3,5 is 9,2M it will be impossible this year (this expectative were in http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=179224&page=5 and 6).

The most I can see for this year is 50% marketshare entering November. Sales before the begging of next gen starts would be like 100M PS4 50M Xbone and 30M WiiU for me (that is 55%, 27,7% and 16,67%). For a 70% dominance we would need PS2 legs (selling well for at least 3 years more than the competion, what will be hard considering PS2 had launched 1 year earlier than the competition, and this time it launched 1 year after one and together with the other... plus stayed on the market without it sucessor for another year more than the competition, while outselling it sucessor for 1 year... so yeah it had 3 years more of strong sales, besides the moderate and weak numbers on the tail end of the gen, 100M during it gen and another 60M after). So even if PS4 had the strong sells of PS2 for the whole gen and ended with 160M when discontinued I would put Xbone at 60M and WiiU at 35M for their discontinued sales which would make a 255M gen (almost the same as gen 7) with Marketshare of 62,75% 23,53% and 13,72%. For the 70% dominance PS4 160M would be accompanied by Xbone 44,5M and WiiU 24M (70% 19,47% and 10,5%)

Which of course shows that for a 70% dominance PS4 doesn't need to only sell pretty well but the competition to blunder completly... so I would preffer a 50-60% dominance for PS4 than 70+% because that would probably mean no competion (which is bad), while dominance would be good (but keep the memory of what happens when a dominant console forgets it must keep it game up to keep dominance).