So I put together this LTD minimum of 16 million based on a few assumptions
-Nintendo still supports the Wii U for at least 3 years following the release of Mario Kart 8
-MK8 has reasonably strong opening sales and holiday and then charts around the same position MK Wii has for the last couple years when not in holiday season
-Overall, lifetime sales of MK8 are not considerably less than the worst selling MK ever
-MK on consoles generally has approximately a 30-33% attach rate
-Basically, MK8 is the only major system seller. Mario and Zelda sequels don't see significant growth in sales on the platform because interest in those series is flat/declining. X, Sonic Boom, and Bayonetta 2 flop hard. Smash sells reasonably well, but not enough to considerably drive up hardware sales. No one cares about Metroid. Skylanders and Disney Infinity are largely irrelevant. Just Dance franchise is living out it's last days. No Pokemon RPG ever arrives on the WiiU. Also no Star Fox -- ever. All other new Nintendo IPs flop in manner similar to the Wonderful 101. Nintendo E3 events are all 'meh' affairs. Playstation and Xbox trade blows with various AAA titles that all capture more attention than anything Nintendo makes.
-Price cuts fail to increase hardware sales substantially
-In this scenario, no 3rd party published game ever makes it to 1 million within a year. Zombie U, Monster Hunter, and perhaps a Lego game or two make it there by the end of the console's life. No 3rd party or indie game ever comes to save the day.
Pretty grim. But....
Please understand. Personally, I'm more optimistic. That's why this is a minimum estimate. It's silly to say WiiU could sell 200 million units. Yet at the same time, I think it's foolish to think that nothing Nintendo creates in the next 3 years has any mass appeal. But I can see how someone would feel differently.
But in a world where sales = quality, that at least makes the WiiU 2x as good as Dreamcast, right?
I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016
