| mai said: ^Being marked with one color on the political map doesn't really matter much these days, if smth I'd expect Crimea to be more like Abhkazia or South Ossetia. Plus speaking Russian matters practically nothing -- a good portion of Israel is speaking Russian, so what? :D De facto Russian is lingua franca for Ukraine, and I never seen a single Ukrainian who could, well, speak Ukrainian, in 9 cases of 10 it's "surzhik", a Russian dialect.
But what makes me doubt Crimea independence in near future is the postition of... Russia here, check this: Anyone would have considered him a political corpse by now (especially if you'er planning to cut Ukraine in pieces), but apparently Putin and Co have different opinion. I wonder why? He's certainly not a pro-Russian president, only braindead MSM considered him pro-Russian, while he truly was a more suitable person than Yuschenko at best, but certainly not a buddie for Moscow.
Anyway these games won't solve the problem that've started it all -- it's near default situation in Ukraine -- national currency (thanks to recent events for the most part) is going down fast, people are rushing for their money in banks, social welfare is nearing its death. So what "revolutionaries" have done first when they came to power? Check balance sheets and have started begging for money from EU, US and, of course, Russia. Under current circumstances they won't live till May (presidental elections). I doubt anyone, including Russia, would invest in current Ukraine simply for the sake of having... I'm not sure even what? It's a black hole. The situation requires stabliziation first and then maybe, possibly, some chance that rest of 15 bln credit line that Putin has opened for Ukraine might reach its target. Don't get me wrong there'd be a default regardless, but it might progress in a less violent way than it's going to now. In light of all that -- what's the Yanukovich role here? Have no idea.
|
I honestly think Ukraine (or a big part of it, read: west of Zhytomir), is fighting far more for ideals and dreams than anything tangible (Ukrainian idea of exiting the soviet union: we are feeding Russia, but we could live like France, I hear the same saying these days, France replaced with Poland), and as soon as they "win", they don't know what the hell they should do and start sidestepping or infighting. You can surely lead a revolution like that, and it's certainly easier than restoring whatever's left of your economy or swallowing your pride. Considering that my home city of Chernigov has now also been pretty much raided by neo-fascists, while nobody did anything, I am extremely disallusioned in anything that has to do with the country. However, I would gladly buy a flight ticket to join a demontation of Bandera's monument in Lvov, if that ever happens.
Ukrainian "politics" are the most complex politics one could mess in. The former government was a mess, this government is a mess, the next one is gonna be a mess. I'll bring up the ol' saying - когда хохол родился - еврей заплакал. It's easy to see the meaning in it with all thats happening now.
edit:
Lumikki, everyone wishes it was as simple as Russian language dominant in speech = Russian support 
Russian has anywhere between 65 to 70 percent of Ukraine, being majority language even in west-central oblasts like Vinnitsya. Crimea has simply been so long with Russian Russia (I know, genius description) that the absolute most of it has nothing to do with Ukraine - I would go as far as to say that Belgorod Oblast in Russia has far more to do with Ukraine than Crimea
