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Their stated production rate is 1.8 million units per month. January sales were roughly 1.3 million, as were February sales, and March is looking to be about that many too. They stated earlier that they plan to launch in new regions this coming fiscal year (which starts April 1st). And you cannot launch in a new region with no product available to sell. Given their hold-back rate of .5 million per month, it's reasonable to assume that they want around 1.5 million units available for the launch of the Wii in territories such as China.

 Also, going by the lowest sales for a month as an average is deceptive, particularly when they fluctuate heavily each week.  To wit:

January sales:

 

5-Jan 522,583
12-Jan 203,172
19-Jan 258,137
26-Jan 313,058

Total: 1,296,950

February sales:

 

2-Feb 343,049
9-Feb 438,028
16-Feb 234,901
23-Feb 241,908

 Total: 1,257,886



Sky Render - Sanity is for the weak.