PS4 Japan launch CELEBRATION (It's here!) - Predictions closed!

[binary solo]

JoeTheBro said:

lucidium said:
Yodobashi has ran out of the more expensive bundle PS4 (camera included bundle): http://www.yodobashi.com/ec/promotion/feature/detail/11105H261501P_11105H261507C/index.html

That's good. Also with 150k I have one of the smarter predictions here. Look at the past launches.

1998.11.27 [Sega Dreamcast] (¥29.800) - 101.490 (3 days)
2000.03.04 [Sony PlayStation 2] (¥39.800) - 630.552 (2 days)
2001.09.14 [Nintendo GameCube] (¥25.000) - 133.719 (3 days)
2002.02.22 [Microsoft XBox] (¥34.800) - 123.929 (3 days)
2005.12.10 [Microsoft XBox 360] (¥29.000 / ¥39.795) - 62.135 (2 days)
2006.11.11 [Sony PlayStation 3] (¥49.980 / ¥59.980) - 88.443 (2 days)
2006.12.02 [Nintendo Wii] (¥25.000) - 371.936 (2 days)
2012.12.08 [Nintendo Wii U] (¥26.250 / ¥31.500) - 308.570 (2 days)
2014.02.22 [Sony PlayStation 4] (¥41.979 / ¥46.179)- xxx.xxx (2 days)

How do you figure 150K is one of the smarter predictions. Surely predicting <50% Wii U launch sales isn't a particularly smart prediction. A smart prediction would be 90%-130% of Wii U launch I would have thought.

Anyway my guess is Sony shipped 500K to Japan and sold 300K on opening weekend. Sony wants to ensure no supply constraints there. Japan already had to wait 3 months to get the damned thing, the last thing Sony wants is gamers pissed at having to wait even longer before getting it in this launch period. Leading in to Dec 2014 supply constraints in Japan will be acceptable if there's global shortages. It's just in this Feb-April timeframe that Sony needs to be able to meet demand.