160k SW, 100k TW - 60k FW- 50-55k FIW is what I'm thinking, based on supposed shipment allocation and regular drop rates. However, if recent rumors of lower shipments are true; I'll be way off and the SW could be as low as 50k, we saw NA go from 1.08 million FW down to about 98k SW for the PS4 last year.
Then again; if the supply is that low, Sony haven't really skimmed off a lot of inventory at all and there's no reason for the PS4 to be sold out everywhere, and if there is low Japanese supply paired with being sold out everywhere, that would suggest they are producing less than many have assumed.
If there is actual supply and it still drops; Japan is pretty much a dud and the worldwide demand isn't as huge as some would make it out to be.
Personally; I think this is partly lower production figures than people assumed paired with slightly lower demand than people have claimed and hoped for, especially for Japan. With no major regional launch to hide behind; we should see the real baseline numbers from around easter and onwards, if they settle in the region I think they will, a lot of people will need to tone down their expectations for year-end totals.
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