I think have to define flop here for Mario Kart. The game has a 99.9% chance of turning a profit for Nintendo so hard to use that metric. Perhaps you mean based on Nintendo's sales projections which I'd have to know first before commenting. If you mean historically within the series then think have to look across relative installed bases of systems to judge that.
Overall, I think it will sell fine and have legs for years and make Nintendo millions and millions of dollars.








