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First of all, these are retail preorders - it is possible retailers overestimate the demand for a game (see Super Mario Galaxy Japan sales) as it is possible they underestimate it - they probably looked at the sales for the other GT games and that´s why preorders are that high. We don´t know yet if the game will sell that well or not.

As for hardware sales, I guess a boost is reasonable but don´t expect the PS3 to sell 200k in a single week - GT5 Prologue is basically a demo, not that many people buy a console because of a demo version for a game. On the other hand, you never know, maybe the boost will be big.