1) Most people focus on short term.
a) The vast majority of Nintendo First Part Titles are not even out yet; once they're released, we'll see a gradual shift.
b) Most people don't even know that a new Wii exists. Nintendo had the worst possible media awareness of a new gen machine. With the advent of the true next gen machines, there will be higher awareness towards WiiU as well.
c) WiiU will always be the cheapest console, and once it reaches $199, it will be a no brainer buy, regardless of its specs or third party support.
2) Most people misunderstand the estimates, which assume a 7 year cycle for all consoles. However, wiiU is likely to have a shorter lifespan, so if you assume, it will live 5 years for example, the total sales will be around 5/7 of the given estimates.
I think its been long enough that wiiu has settled into whatever it is, and around 30/40k a week is what it is short and long term.
a - enough are to see that its titles wont have any big effect, small bumps but ill trend around whats its doing now.
b - i dont see them being out helping wiiu awareness in any way.
c - except due to the pad ninty cant get it down to 199 so easy, costs are not in their favor. Wiiu has been the cheapest console since day one but its not helped it much, nor will this. Its still a product no one actually wants.