| RenCutypoison said: It's funny how many people say that PS4 can't beat PS2, but still post weekly estimations here that, if extended to a year, gives ps4 a 15-25 million second year of sales. |
Dunno which ones you meant, but here's my simpified approximation on this year:
Q1: 2 million or so.
Q2/Q3: with an average baseline of my indicated 150-160k weekly through this period (average, it will dip well below and go somewhat above at times), that makes another 3.7-3.9 million sales for this period.
Q4: Really hard to say, but it will naturally be above the other quarters. With me expecting about 11.5 million for the year, that leaves 5.5-6 million or so for Q4, a weekly average of 432-460k or so, which is easily within the realm of realism given a few 700-900k weeks in Nov/Dec (the PS3 has actually had million selling weeks, I can easily see the PS4 pulling that off in 2015 with a lower price and a solid library of games).
That leaves about 11-12 million, or 11.5 middle ground, for the 2014 CY.
Could be someone else you're referring to, but I don't understand your reasoning here; first of all, the 15-25 million difference is too vast to hold any meaning, if the PS4 has a 18 million selling year, or even a 20 million selling year, that does in no way indicate that it has any chance of beating the PS2, given the PS2's amazing sustained sales and insane lifespan. A 15 million year would be barely above PS3 peak levels and not something to be lauded as a huge feat today. There are no numbers that I can see in this thread indicating a victory over the PS2 and a new sales record.
Or are you saying that the weekly baseline sales suggested here, extended to a full sales year on average, amount to 15-25 million? With my estimated numbers, that would make just over 8.3 million in one year, tops and I can't seem to find anyone suggesting 300-320k average baseline sales. Let alone the 480k required to meet 25 million.
Or is it that with these estimations, the second year (2015) sales will be in the 15-25 million region? Still doesn't tell us anything. There are a multitude of factors, I'm guessing you're looking at historical data like the Wii's 50% rise in the second year to back these numbers up then? If so, I have to remind you that:
A: The Wii was heavily supply constrained through its entire first year, when this was sorted out, it lead to an abnormal yoy growth due to excess demand being satisfied at long last.
B: The Wii had historical drops following this historical rise and was touted as a guaranteed candidate for beating the PS2 as well, this obviously never happened.
The PS2 had several years of sustained sales way into the 20 million region, the DS, selling about as much in a shorter time span had three consecutive years of sales close to the 30 million mark, this is the route the PS4 would need to take seeing as how this gen is very, very likely to be shorter than the 7th gen by quite a bit. So, in order for the PS4 to beat the PS2, even with the best historical conditions applied, it would need to either; sell 15-20 million this year and then increase 50% yoy in 2015 and maintain a similar rate of sales for at least three-four years (into 2018-2019) or perhaps even rise quite a bit more (perhaps a full additional 50% if the cycle is two years shorter, which is my expectation), or it would need a life cycle that just isn't possible in the revisionist consumer electronics market with a static product, selling heaps to developing markets that are clearly following the trends of matured markets (which are, just as clearly, moving away from traditional gaming compared to the 7th gen).
It's not possible.
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6064628
The market has changed, it has splintered and branched out and the year 2000 was ages ago in technological, economical and gaming industry related terms.
