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As of last year, Nintendo was charging $150 for a new Gamepad (including tax and shipping):

http://mynintendonews.com/2013/02/26/wii-u-gamepad-could-cost-you-at-least-140-to-replace/

There's no way the Gamepad isn't adding (at least) $100 to the cost of the WiiU.  A $199 WiiU with a Wiimote/nunchuck instead of the Gamepad would, at the very worst, incur the same losses as now (probably more like breaking even).  Difference is, they'd be moving a lot more consoles - and consequently - a lot more software.

If they did "Basic" WiiU bundles with DKC, Mario Kart, Smash, or maybe a Wii Sports 3 at, say, $249, Ninty would do very well this holiday and, just as importantly, much better come fiscal earnings time.