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I'm saying 20 million right now (being generous), the GCN finished at 22 mill, so that would be a no.

Basically the same thing though, it's not as if Nintendo will be happy with 23 million versus say 21 million.

Thing is even with Mario Kart and Smash it's unlikely the Wii U will match the GameCube's 2003 (same equivalent year) because that was the GCN's best year with the $99.99 price cut and Mario Kart: Double Dash. So that leaves 2015 for the Wii U to have to start making up ground ... it's just too late. GCN basically outsold the Wii U at launch and all of last year (2013 vs. 2002). 

Wii U could very well be the first Nintendo console to not pass 20 million (unless you count Virtual Boy).