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I reckon the earliest time they might discontinue would be after its 2nd full Christmas. ie. after Xmas 2015.

I also think that it wouldn't be too hard for Microsoft to discontinue the Xbox. eg. If by the end of 2015, they were still losing money on the Xbox, INCLUDING software sales and 3rd party licensing and that Christmas hadn't seen a turnaround. Then I could see them halting production, selling through existing stock and only releasing games that they already had in development.

But I don't think that scenario is likely.