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I always thought the most reasonable excuse was that the Halo 3 XBox 360 was overproduced at the expense of the XBox 360 priemium/elite production ... This (probably) didn't prevent the purchase of too many consoles, but it did have a large enough impact to show up in the sales charts.

Even though Microsoft's use of this as an excuse probably exaggerated the situation, this doesn't mean that the shortage wasn't real.