It depends on quite a few variables. First, how much of the new userbase brought in mainly by the Wii and then also by the Kinect can this generation feasibly retain. So far, Nintendo has been doing a really bad job at convincing people who bought the Wii, especially first time buyers of consoles, to also buy the Wii U. And I would speculate that these gamers aren't opting to buy a PS4 or X1, but simply sticking with the systems they already have. It is possible thath these gamers are waiting for pricedrops all around, which is something I think Nintendo should look into and make up the loss with software sales, but that is just my opinion.
A second variable is how much can the market expand in European and Asian markets that became more "active" this past generation. Sony has been leading the way in expanding these markets, but once again how to convince them to spend the extra money to get the new systems.
Finally, how to deal with the "ease and accessibility" of games that has caught on in the past few years. Whether these are games on smartphones and tablets or F2P games. These pose problems for video game machines which require a buyer to purchase a new system, accessories, new games, etc. The console makers have to be able to convince these fringe gamers that there is a superior experience on their systems. 3DS was able to manage this surprisingly well so it is definitely possible for the consoles as well. But proving to these other gamers that real gaming is what is on the systems and not a cheap thrill like Candy Crush is something that will be battled with for time to come.
But I will stand optimistic. Hopefully the systems can accomplish success and growth. But, people must realize, that for the market to expand, Nintendo needs to do well too. Should start rooting them on as well with the Wii U haha.
