Mummelmann said:
I think people are looking to get severely disappointed if they expect the PS4 to maintain the Wii's pace for the first 2-3 years. The first year was about 16.5 million with supply constraints all the way and the second was about 24 million. And then a historically unprecedented decline set in.
The PS4 will likely follow a lot more stable sales curve with a smaller spike (or rather; spikes) but a somewhat similar yearly average total in the end, in a shorter time span though (shorter gen).
The Wii's greatest strength was also its greatest weakness; the target demographic was what enabled it to sell so insanely fast but was also, in the end, what lead to its downfall when these customers simply headed elsewhere, towards more convenient territory with a higher perceived value. It's all deeply fascinating in hindsight and is a grand show of very direct market movements and how different segments affect each other. A lot of people will tell you that "it declined because Nintendo dropped support", which is untrue twofold; they did not abandon it and the decline started long before the decreased publishing focus occurred.
The PS4 does not have a foot in this segment of the market, but it has a strong core following with no hardware gimmick to lose its zest after a couple of years, decent pricing leverage in the coming 3-4 years, terrific support and, currently, a high perceived value. Mind you; I believe that the PS4's flying start is more due to the blunders of the others rather than genius moves by Sony; they have more or less evolved the idea and concept of the PS3 and released it under a lot less hostile circumstances.
In short; the PS4 is selling on its own, permanent premises with no outlying fringe features and gimmicks to drive; it's not trying to aim at the tablet/smartphone crowd and that's a good thing; it has a lot more focus. Imagine it as a flashlight compared to a lantern; the flashlight illuminates a smaller part of the room but the light is a lot brighter. More or less. The Gamepad and Kinect are the two best helpers the PS4 could have hoped for right now, if MS drops Kinect and shifts and directs more focus towards the core market; they will ultimately become a stronger competitor and gain a more earnest and more easily conveyable identity.
In my honest opinion.
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So you don't think that ps4 can do either of these things? despite the ps2 having all but done it (IIRC ps2's first year sales were 15 million and second 21million) so i don't think it's beyond the relms of possibility that the fastest ever selling games console can top this with the right games released at the right times (UC4 this year, GT7, GTA6 and GOW4 next year)
