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Vita did around 320k at launch. I don't see why PS4 won't beat that number, and the excuse of "not enough games that interest japanese audience" doesn't matter because in that respect Vita launch was even worse.

Considering Sony delayed Japanese launch, I'm sure it was not only for better japanese games but for more shipments at launch too.

I'm still expecting 400-500k units sold 1st week, and around 700-800k at the end of March.