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Brawl will do much better.. I'm basing that on the sales of the biggest Nintendo francises for the Wii. Twilight Princess was released the same day Wii launched and its usually in the top 50 software (though not this week..) and Super Mario Galaxy is also showing great legs.  

No Metal Gear Solid game has sold more than six million worldwide. Sounds like your friend is full of shit.

NameConsolePublisherJapanAmericaOthersTotal
Metal Gear SolidKonami0.782.812.005.59
Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of LibertyKonami0.852.292.425.56
Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake EaterKonami0.861.421.683.96
Metal Gear Solid: Portable OpsKonami0.380.340.311.03
Totals (4 matches)2.96.96.4

16.1