I'm assuming we will see something like 45-30% contraction. That may seem drastic to some but even the PS4 isn't doing much better than a console that may have peaked last year. I have no reason to believe that it will do amazingly well in it's final launch region as most of it's software isn't geared to that region. Sure CoD and GTA are getting bigger in Japan but I don't think it will be enough to make PS4 sell and saturate like the DS or PS2.
So using current last gen numbers at 500(496 rounded) million that would leave us somewhere from 275-350 million sold 8th gen. Breakdown:
3DS 90-105
Vita 25-40
Wii U 30-45
PS4 90-105
XO 40-55
Total 275-350
3rd party games are too samey as no one is willing to fund a risk but Nintendo. They quite literally can't afford to innovate due to the AAA business model. There simply aren't compelling reasons to upgrade hardware in terms of new types of software. I can honestly say the most compelling thing about this generation of consoles is very slight technological conveniences and a prettier sheen. I can only hope the indie market through quality raises game value and has that Atari like variety we so sorely need to prevent this from being stagnant.
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