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OP it's exactly PS4 vs Xbox One.
EA came out and say that the reason Titanfall is exclusive is because they though Xbox One would have dominate the PS4.
So yes. If one console is winning easily, then Dev will support that console the most and will probably get more 3rd party exclusives.
Let us just imagine those 2 scenarios
1st Scenario: Titanfall delivers something that has never done before, wow the power of the cloud. OMG quantum break has pushed the cloud to new levels can this game can only be done in Xbox One. And those two new IP goes on and sell 10 millions. You really think third party developers are not going to use the power of the cloud and create some new IP to take advantage of the resources that TitanFall and Quantum Break got with the could and dedicated servers and won't care at all about all the talk about the power of the PS4
2nd Scenario: Infamous Second Son is the first truly next gen game. Visual are way above anything else seeing so far, the gameplay, the graphics and the vast city of Seattle with all the details that can only be done in PS4. OMG wow the Order 1886 is like something that was never done before, the smoother controls, all the extra function you can do with the D-pad, this new kind of gameplay and graphic that can only be done thanks to the power of the PS4. Then both games go and sell around 10 millions copies. 3rd party developer will try to get some new IP and take advante of the power of the PS4 and have them exclusives if Xbox can handle the power to make sure they are not left behind.
it's all about making money and they will choose which way is the best for their new IP
1) Go multiplats.
2) Go Xbox One exclusive
3) Go PS4 exclusive