| Kyo_86 said:
The 1.2m is probably right. The thing is that Sony sold 2.1m in december and this number was only possible thanks to changing the shipping from boat to air but now that they returned to ship through boats theres a period of draught. Next week they should be selling 200k+ already, and they should start stocking just now for the japanese launch which should reflect only the March shipments for US and EU |
Yeah, when you factor in the shipping lead time it's not unreasonable for 150k per week in Jan and 1.2m monthly production to both be true.
Assume - 4 weeks from factory gate to shelf and 1.2m produced each month.
So January sales were on stock produced and despatched in December.
If 50% of the December production was air-freighted in to support December sales then there are only 600k units left for January - that's enough for 4 weeks of sales at 150k per week.
In reality once you factor in time at departure port, customs clearance and in-country shipping you're probably looking at 5-6 weeks in US and 6-8 weeks in EU. That means that we're actually talking about stock built in November hitting store shelves in January.
On this basis (plus the requirement to build stock for Asia) it wouldn't surprise me to see stock restrictions lasting beyond the Japanese launch.
Sony's shipped numbers should be quite telling in giving us an indication as to the time from factory to store. If my speculation is anywhere near correct then we should easily expect to see 1.5m or more extra units shipped than VG sold numbers.
