At $500 such an sku would flop next to the current one. People are starting to like downloading games, but hardly anyone wants to go full digital.
At $400, it's a trade off. The disc free one is worse, but it's $100 cheaper. I still think most consumers wouldn't like it. Look at the vita and wii u. Both launched with two skus $50 apart. The premium wii u sku added memory and the premium vita sku added 3G. The cheaper wii u sku flopped relativly and the more expensive vita sku flopped relativly. What was the difference?
The cheaper wii u sku felt gimped. It barely has enough memory while the premium has lots. The more expensive vita sku felt excessive. 3G would be nice, but a vita without it is still great. A disc less xbone sku falls into the wii u group. The sku would feel gimp making people not run out and buy it evan at a lower cost.
Tldr: nope
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