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http://www.vg247.com/2014/01/31/senior-publishing-source-confirms-new-cheaper-xbox-one-release-for-2014/
"Microsoft has told trusted publishing partners that it will release a new model Xbox One before the end of the year, a senior source has confirmed to VG247."

"By the end of the year" means by next holiday season. I wouldn't be surprised if BOTH MS and Sony are able to gain prodution cost decreases by years end, and a $100 cut for each by next holiday wouldn't be shocking. Of course, if Sony is feeling confident, they may drop only by $50 if they feel they won't lose sales and can just enjoy the profits. Unbundling Kinect really seems the only way to be able to achieve parity with, or beat Sony on price. If they're going to do that, by next holiday seems a good idea, so that they don't end up giving Sony a major lead that they will try to crawl back against (with the weaker console).