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Hamister on 31 January 2014
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Considering Nintendo have revised a large chunk of their business plan, I'm not so certain a comparison between Wii U sales and N64/GC sales is as relevant as one might think. Changing a business strategy for a hardware platform 14 months after its release, the way Nintendo has done, is to my knowledge unprecidented. It could either;

1) Back fire; leading to even worse sales
2) Have no impact at all; leading to a sales curve similar to N64/GC
3) Become a success that will revive Wii U in ways impossible to foresee at the moment

Either way it will be interesting to see what happens. I fear it'll be a change too late.

With that said, I still believe Wii U has potential to reach 30 million systems life time if the new business strategy is executed flawlessly. Key to such sales is how fast the new strategy will come into effect. I do see Q1 and most of Q2 2014 a lost cause for Wii U. Nintendo can at the earliest revive Wii U in September/October, in conjuntion with the first signs of an implemenation of their new business plan. Q1 and Q2 of 2014 will be all about keeping the little momentum they have gained, with Q3 as the quarter where Nintendo might gain some momentum thanks to the legs of Mario Kart 8, and Q4 more like a possible "re-launch" window of the Wii U. The question is, does Nintendo have the resources to buy themselves that much time?

Nintendo's problem right now is software drought, related to a bleeding lack of third party support, in combination with restricted internal resources. I think Nintendo has adressed that problem in their new business strategy by licensing their franchises to thirdparty developers, as well as merging software development for 3DS with Wii U. However, this is something that won't come into full effect untill 2015.

Nintendo's next problem, and their absolute BIGGEST problem as I see it, is to keep retailers onboard long enough to introduce the new business strategy to the market. This problem isn't even adressed in their new strategy, which is alarming. I believe it'll be a costly affair to keep retailers interested in a product that doesn't sell. Quite frankly I'm not so sure it's even possible. This is the true achilles heel of Nintendo seen in a short term perspective.